By G.N.R. Chaudhary

The grandJalsa (gathering) at Parade Ground, Islamabad on March 27 indicates  Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is both angryand almost certain of his fate that awaits him in the ensuing days. His speechclearly indicated that he smelled foul play and conspiracy by both the powerful GHQ and the foreign powers who arehelping PPP and PML(N).  He was also displeasedwith US President Joe Biden for not calling him up ever. Recently, Khan firedsalvos at a group of 22 major nations, from the EU, NATO, Japan and Australia,for jointly requesting Pakistan to condemn Russia on the Ukraine issue. Khanfelt Pakistanis have the right to remain neutral.

Within a fewdays, however, he said: “only animals remain neutral” and criticized the allpowerful Pakistani Army for advising him to avoid using slurs against theopposition leaders who are leading a no-trust motion against his government inthe Parliament.

Imran’s speechon March 27 in a huge rally was full of anger against Asif Ali Zardari andNawaz Sharif as he informed the crowd that these parties with foreignassistance are trying to topple his government.  While he tried to compare the situation withthat of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto who was unceremoniously removed by MilitaryDictator Ziaul Haq, he tried to convince the cheering crowd that he too, likeBhutto, wanted to pursue an independent foreign policy like India. There islittle doubt that he is desperate and is living merely on Chinese support. However,the Chinese are openly meddling with  the domestic politics in Pakistan.

Newspaperreports from Pakistan suggest senior Chinese envoys are meeting the Oppositionleaders, army bosses and factions within the ruling coalition. The model issimilar to what China did to Nepal to keep Nepal Communist Party together, in2020. On March 13, the deputy head of the Chinese Mission in Pakistan, PangChunxue, met the president of the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) andformer Prime Minister Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. PML-Q is a minority partner inthe Khan government and may hold the key in the no-trust vote. According to astatement by the party, Chunxue discussed the “political situation” and “issuesof mutual interest”. The envoy was quoted saying that “China wants politicaland economic stability in Pakistan.” This shows that  a totalitarian China doesn’t have much regardfor the rules of the civilized world.

In 2020,during the first wave of the pandemic, Beijing didn’t stop at buying supportfor their puppet government in Kathmandu; they were also grabbing Nepalese landand were muzzling the Nepalese press. The media was barred even from referringto the origin of the covid-19 virus in China.

The bigquestion is: will this protect the interest of either Pakistan or China?Beijing is working on a single-minded interest to utilize Pakistan's geographyand its government for its benefit. The much-publicized Belt and RoadInitiative (BRI), China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) had more to do withChina than Pakistan. However, despite all the propaganda aired through thepro-Chinese 'Global Times', CPEC is suffering.

Fromcorruption, anti-CPEC movement in Balochistan to attack on Chinese nationals –the project has been in the news for all the wrongreasons.  Moreover, the growing uncertainty in Afghanistan, thecatastrophic Taliban rule and the rise of anti-Taliban factions are potentenough to cause more trouble in the days to come. All these mean the fund flowto CPEC that the Imran Khan government was so zealously banking on will remainelusive. The army-backed contractor lobby in Pakistan has already sucked goodmoney out of it, and if the fund flow recedes, they will have less interest inCPEC. However, Khan has no alternatives. He has burnt all the bridges with thedemocratic world and is now completely dependent on Chinese support, whateverit might be.

In the past,Pakistan was surviving on US aid and loans from the US-backed multilateral organizationslike the IMF. The US aid has stopped since 2018. Pakistan took 22 loans fromthe IMF in the past and was undergoing review for the 23rd loan.

Meanwhile, thePakistan economy went bankrupt. Since Khan took over in 2018, retail inflationhas been skyrocketing. That is despite the low crude price and low globalinflation for the majority of the period. Except January 2021, the inflationhad been above 8 percent over the last two years, crossed the 14 percent markonce, and has been hovering at 10-13 percent for the last six months. The ineptgovernment has a little source of dollars except for remittances, and needsfresh borrowings to repay past loans. Even the remittance economy is under thescanner for its potential link to terrorist activities. Pakistan has been onthe grey list of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) since June2018 for failing to check money laundering, leading to terror financing. Theposition remains unchanged since.

In short, Pakistanis living dangerously. Its economy is in shambles and it has zero credibilityas a borrower. People are suffering from high inflation. To hold on to itsfast-eroding popularity, the Khan government is offering huge food subsidiesgoing against the IMF prescription. In the Islamabad gathering on March 27,Khan boasted his government’s pro-people initiatives that led to cut in dieselprices by Rs 10 a litre and a resurgent economy with huge production of rice,wheat, potatoes and maize. 

Living onChinese support, Khan is now doing whatever Beijing wants from him. So much sothat his Government, the most prominent US ally outside NATO, is criticizingthe US and is allowing its land to be used by the Chinese.

Clearly, Khanis steering Pakistan to a dead end where the US may take punitive action.Considering Pakistan’s elites, including army officials, who are hugelyinvested in the West; any such possibility will create serious upheaval athome. With 50 lawmakers of his party reportedly under the custody of ISIsimilar to many “enforced disappearances” of Balochs , Pashtuns and Sindhinationalists , Khan will not be able to save his chair unless some miraclehappens . But it will come at a great cost to Pakistan. And, China has to sharepart of the blame for disaster and anarchy in Pakistan.