The HK Post, May 10, 2022

President Xi Jinping’s policies arebeginning to be questioned within China as he prepares the ground for a thirdfive-year term in the second half of 2022. It does not put a question mark onhis future as China’s strong man but, yes, he no longer commands unquestionedloyalty from his people.

The world has changed rapidly since Xi tookcharge as President for the second term in 2017. The Covid pandemic transformedhow the world works and breathes. China, Xi in particular, took the blame fromthe international community for the outbreak and suppression of information. Itwas thanks to tacit support from the World Health Organisation that Xi escapedthe heat of a global probe into the Wuhan laboratory, but the damage was done.

The President’s Zero Covid policy is nowbeginning to test the patience of the Chinese people. Dozens of cities andtowns, including Shanghai, are under lockdown for weeks and months. There isshortage of food and groceries and the people are beginning to feel the pinch.They are beginning to raise their voices in protest. The social media platformsare full of complaints.

The lockdowns have affected the economy,already weighed down by the President’s actions against Chinese unicorns andbig businesses to teach them who is their master. Trade is impacted, ships areneither being loaded or unloaded in Shanghai ports, factories are shut,manufacturing is down, inflation and prices are rising.

Internationally, China has nothing much towrite home about. It takes the blame for its illegal incursion into India’sLadakh region in 2020 and refusing to vacate from there. It takes the blame forcontinuing to back Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and refusing to condemn theillegal actions of President Vladimir Putin.

This is a situation President Xi may nothave envisaged when 2022 began but he has to plan for the 20th party congresswell knowing that the public image of his invincibility has been dented. Thisis far from when Xi was included in the pantheon of China’s leaders along withMao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping and it was decided that “Xi Jinping Thought onSocialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” will be the guidingprinciple of the Chinese Communist Party.

However, Xi’s pot of woes is overflowing.There are several other issues that may paint him in a less than honourablecolour.

The CCP recently elected President Xi as adelegate for the 20th party Congress. The decision came about at the party’sGuangxi regional Congress by a unanimous vote. The CCP Central Committeenominated him as a candidate for delegate to Congress.

There is speculation that the date of the20th party Congress may be advanced in view of the complex internal andexternal situations. The idea is get it over with, with least damage to Xi’simage.

The Diplomat reports that for Xi to get histhird term, “some institutional adjustments and explanations will be needed”.The news publication refers to Article 6 of the 2006 “Regulations on theSelection of Leading Party and Government Cadres” that says that“reappointments to positions in the CCP can be made only once, precluding athird term”. The publication claims: “This regulation is still in effect today,and if it were to be applied in its present form that would make it difficultfor Xi to serve a third term. However, Xi could use this regulation to hisadvantage by becoming Chairman of the CCP on the grounds that he cannot servethree terms as General Secretary.” Basically, it is about tweaking rules, butthe point being made is they have negative publicity value that Xi wants toavoid.

The second issue relates to age. Under theconvention “commonly referred to as the ‘seven-up and eight-down’ rule, a cadrewho is 68 or older must retire while a cadre who is 67 or younger may remain inoffice. Xi is 68 but his retirement can be postponed under the 2015 “SeveralProvisions on Advancing Capacity to Promote and Demote Leading Cadres(Provisional)”.  Xi will benefit from thepractice he established of selecting personnel on the basis of their abilitiesand other criteria rather than their seniority. Questions will continue to beraised about Xi’s retirement age nevertheless.

Finally, the key question that will beraised in the run-up to the 20th Congress will be about Xi’s successor. Whenwill the successor emerge, if not at this Congress?