Reuters, bdnews24.com (Bangladesh), Published: 25 October2024

When an alliance led by three rebel armies seized swathes of territory nearMyanmar's border with China from the military junta last October, Beijinglooked the other way.

A year on, rebel forces have ground down the junta, pushing the military outof vital borderlands and making inroads into the contested heart of Myanmar.

In response, China has sealed the border and shut off key imports toterritory under rebel control, said a rebel leader and five border-arearesidents, a move analysts say aims to dissuade the alliance from furtheradvances, including attacking the cultural capital of Mandalay.

After initially backing the Three Brotherhood Alliance to crack down onrampant border crime going unchecked by the junta, Beijing is increasinglyalarmed at the rapid degeneration of the military, which it still sees as aguarantor of stability in its neighbour, said two analysts who trackMyanmar-China relations. China is also anxious about the ascendancy of rebelgroups that have been helping the alliance and are also tied to the US-backedparallel National Unity Government, one of them said.

The previously unreported details of how Beijing is pressuring rebel forces,including by blocking imports - leading at least one group to withdraw from thefight - were described to Reuters by nine people with knowledge of theconflict.

One inflection point came in August, when the alliance took the northeasterntown of Lashio, marking the first seizure of a regional military command inMyanmar's history.

The town of about 130,000 fell to the rebels twice as quickly as they hadexpected, said Ni Ni Kyaw, secretary of a communist resistance group fightingin support of Operation 1027, as the alliance-led offensive is known.

Myanmar's junta said in a statement responding to Reuters' questions that itcooperates with Beijing to ensure stability and rule of law along the frontier,and will not accept the demands of "armed terrorists," as it callsthe rebels.

"We will continue to solve the situation using political methods,"it said.

China's foreign ministry told Reuters it "resolutely opposes theemergence of chaos and war in Myanmar" and urges involved parties to"jointly push for a soft landing of the situation" near the border.The Chinese consulate in Mandalay was partially damaged by a blast last week,though there were no casualties.

Some rebel groups hope to build on the recent momentum and chart a coursesouth to Mandalay, two rebel leaders and analysts said. From there, the capitalof Naypyidaw is a mere 300km (190 miles) away.

Beijing would likely oppose such a move, said international security expertZhu Jiangming, who has written about the border situation for Chinese statemedia.

"Mandalay is the second largest city in Myanmar, equivalent toShanghai," he said, adding that the fall of Mandalay would be a turningpoint in the conflict that Beijing would try to prevent.

'DIFFICULT SITUATION'

Operation 1027, named after the date when fighting commenced last year,started at a time when crime ensnarling Chinese victims was taking place nearthe border. That prompted Beijing not to object when the Three BrotherhoodAlliance started routing the junta.

The alliance is composed of three groups - including the ethnic ChineseMyanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) - over which Beijing hasinfluence but not direct control.

But China opposes the collapse of the junta, which ousted Aung San Suu Kyi'scivilian government in a 2021 coup. It fears perpetual turmoil along its1,250-mile border with Myanmar would jeopardise investments and trade, analysts say.

Cracking down on crime should not eclipse the bigger picture, Zheng Gang ofCITIC Reform and Development Research Foundation, a division of a Chinesestate-owned enterprise developing a port in Myanmar, wrote in a March analysis.

He said greater unrest in Myanmar could benefit China’s rivals, includingthe US and Japan, whom he said were viewed favourably by influential groupslike the NUG.

Beijing previously flexed its muscles when it negotiated a ceasefire betweensome ethnic militias and the junta in January. But fighting later continued andby mid August, Lashio had fallen.

Shortly after Lashio's collapse, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met juntaleader Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar. Wang told him Beijing "opposes chaosand conflicts" and urged him to "safeguard Chinese personnel andprojects," according to a Chinese government readout. China's militaryheld joint-fire exercises on the border later that month.

Pressure on the Three Brotherhood Alliance followed. China closed bordergates, cutting off supplies to territory newly under MNDAA control, accordingto Maung Saungkha, leader of another army which supported the alliance in thefighting, as well as five residents.

Even medical supplies like children's vaccines have not been gettingthrough, leaving the rebels running a public health system amid conflict"in a very difficult situation", said Maung Saungkha.

The tightened border controls have slowed the flow of arms and ammunition toresistance groups, he said, adding that his forces would try to seize moreammunition from defeated junta troops.

In September, the MNDAA, which has longstanding ties with China, declared itwould not work with allies to expand territory, nor engage with or cooperatewith “foreign nations” that opposed China or Myanmar. It also announced it wasready for a ceasefire under China’s guidance, though it remains part of thealliance.

Late that month, the junta invited rebel forces to peace talks. The proposalwas swiftly rejected by rebel leaders like Maung Saungkha, who said China'srole in backing such negotiations could pave the way for a sham election.

A senior National Unity Government official, who spoke on condition ofanonymity because they were not authorised to discuss relations with Beijing,said China was trying to create divisions among anti-junta forces. Beijing hasurged some groups to stop fighting the military and cease cooperating with theNUG, said the official, without providing evidence.

The NUG has a loose alliance with some rebel groups, while others sit withinits chain of command.

An assault on Mandalay would be difficult for the Three Brotherhood Allianceto engage in while maintaining ties with China, said Jason Tower, an analystwith the Washington-based US Institute of Peace. He added that it would berisky for the rebels to try and take Mandalay without alliance backing.

Soe Thuya Zaw, a commander of the Mandalay People's Defence Forces, whichreports to the NUG, said China’s influence was a “reality," but thatgroups like his farther from the border could lead in the fight for Mandalay.

“We must unite, we must prepare, and we must do our training to overcome thepressure from China,” he said.

INSTABILITY AT THE TOP

Beijing's latest intervention came after seeing how quickly junta forcesdisintegrated in Lashio.

"China has now become even more proactive and shifted its posture quiteremarkably," said Tower.

Rebels believed the junta would use the temporary halt in combat forced byChina to prepare a strong defence there, said Soe Thuya Zaw. Instead, themilitary struggled to put up a fight when conflict resumed, with its highcommand losing communication with senior officers at regional headquarters.

There has also been instability at the top.

Since the 2021 coup, Min Aung Hlaing has rotated his regional militarycommanders at a much faster rate. Between June 2017 and the Feb. 2021 coup, the14 regional military commands that form the bedrock of the general's hold overMyanmar saw 36 people serve as commanders, according to Security Force Monitor,a research group at Columbia University.

In the same 44-month period after the coup, there were 49 commanders, anincrease of 36%.

Many of the rotations - the details of which have not been previouslyreported - occurred in the area abutting China where the military has lostsignificant ground.

"According to the latest data available, the majority of currentlyserving regional military commanders have never commanded a regional militarycommand before," said Tony Wilson, the research group's director.

The quick-fire rotation of commanders reflected a bid by Min Aung Hlaing toassert greater control over the military and forestall dissent, said analyst YeMyo Hein. The general has come under unprecedented pressure and criticism –even from loyalists – for the defeats over the past year.

During the rebel offensive, Min Aung Hlaing sacked Lashio's regionalcommander for insubordination after an argument, according to analyst Min ZawOo, who has interacted with junta officials, and Ye Myo Hein.

The replacement was not able to enter Lashio during the fighting, they said,nor were reinforcements from other areas.

"You don't change a commander in a crisis just forinsubordination," Min Zaw Oo said.