AFP Mandalay, Myanmar
Published: ProthomAlo (Bangladesh), 25 Oct 2024, 22: 21
Weeks ago, residents could hear the sounds of clashes along the road thatleads out of the country's second city.
"We are afraid of the fighting coming here but we have nowhere tohide," said one man who owns a food shop near the checkpoint and requestedanonymity for security reasons.
"Operation 1027", named for its start date, has ejected the juntafrom around 50,000 square kilometres -- an area roughly the size of Bosnia --according to analysts and an AFP tally.
The spoils include a string of towns along a lucrative trade highway tonorthern neighbour China, along with most of western Rakhine state, home to aproposed Beijing-backed deep-sea port on the Indian Ocean.
Mandalay's capture by the British in 1885 ended the last independent Burmesekingdom and its loss now would be a stunning blow to the junta.
Fighters from the "Mandalay PDF" -- students, teachers and ITworkers who fled the city years ago to join the struggle against the junta --are already in Patheingyi, about five kilometres from the city, according tothe group's spokesman Osmond, who uses one name.
"If we can capture Mandalay, we believe that this will make big changein our revolution," he said by phone from an undisclosed location.
Last month, an unidentified group launched a rocket attack on the city,damaging several buildings, and last week, the Chinese consulate was hit by anexplosion, drawing a stern protest from Beijing -- a major arms supplier andally of the junta.
In the city's bustling, dusty downtown there are few soldiers on the streetsand police rarely venture out from stations barricaded with concrete andsandbags.
"Mandalay is not well-protected at all," said one former localpolitician, who also requested anonymity to talk to the media.
"Where can we go if there is war in Mandalay? We just have to diehere."
The sustained success of "Operation 1027" has buoyed the dozens ofPDF groups that sprung up to fight the military, whose coup plunged the countryinto more than three years of brutal civil war.
But replicating its advances in the central plains around Mandalay willprove a challenge, independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson told AFP.
The terrain is "prime territory" for the junta to press itsadvantages in air power and artillery, he said, while fighting in a sprawling,urban area is a complication.
Whether the ethnic rebel alliance that spearheaded "Operation1027" would join any assault on the city, which is far from its bases inthe borderlands, remains unclear.
And looming over that question is China.
Beijing maintains ties with the ethnic rebel groups that operate along itsborder, which it sees as useful as leverage in its relations with the junta.
Analysts say Beijing gave "Operation 1027" a green light on thecondition it dismantled any online scam compounds located in territory it tookin Shan state.
Such compounds are typically run by Chinese nationals and staffed by peoplefrom China and other countries who were often trafficked and forced to workswindling their compatriots.
Beijing is now trying to prevent the alliance from making more gains thatcould further diminish the junta, said Jason Tower of the United StatesInstitute for Peace.
Toppling the military is "a clear red line" for China, he toldAFP.
The rebel alliance -- made up of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar NationalDemocratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)-- did not respond to AFP requests for comment.
Beijing has closed several of its border crossings that provide revenue tothe rebel groups, and cut internet, water and power supplies to enclaves alongits border.
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is expected to visit China next month, in whatwould be his first trip to his most important ally since the coup, and Towersaid that Beijing had made it clear it wanted the military to prevail.
The Mandalay PDF fighters in the plains outside their home city have theirown goals.
"Capturing Mandalay is one of our most strategic militaryobjectives," said spokesman Osmond.
"But we don't plan to reveal when we will do this operation."