Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

(On Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed concerns about the war in Ukraine and said the priority should be preventing the conflict from ‘spinning out of control’)
March 10, 2022 9:34 PM
As the war in Ukraine continues, the international community is desperately trying to find a way to facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The two sides have held three rounds of talks so far, but no long-term results have come out of these negotiations so far.
Many countries have repeatedly looked to China to help facilitate more meaningful negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, but Beijing hasn't offered any clear signal about whether it is willing to get more involved in the unfolding crisis in Ukraine or not.
In an interview with Spanish newspaper El Mundo last week, the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he was in favour of China mediating the peace talks. "There is no alternative," he said. "We can't be the mediators, that is clear… And it cannot be the US either. Who else? It has to be China."
Then on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on both sides to settle disputes by peaceful means, through dialogue and negotiation, and "respect and protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries." He also described Russia as China's "most important strategic partner" while refusing to condemn Moscow's invasion of Ukraine despite growing international pressure.
"No matter how perilous the international landscape, we will maintain our strategic focus and promote the development of a comprehensive China-Russia partnership in the new era," Wang said during a press conference on the sidelines of the annual meeting of China's rubber-stamp parliament.
Will China volunteer to be the mediator?
On Tuesday,
Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed concerns about the war in Ukraine
and said the priority should be preventing the conflict from "spinning
out of control." The comments came following Xi's virtual meeting with
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In
the readout released by the Chinese government, Xi called for "maximum
restraint" and that "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all
countries must be respected, the legitimate security concerns of all
countries must be taken seriously, and all efforts that are conducive to
the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported." A
German government spokesperson said on Tuesday that Chancellor Scholz,
French President Macron, and Chinese President Xi agreed to fully
support all efforts aimed at seeking a diplomatic solution to the war. Danil
Bochkov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council in
Moscow, said it is unlikely that China will agree to voluntarily play
the role of mediator between Ukraine and Russia as it could put Beijing
at the center of international scrutiny. "I
don't think China is willing to throw itself into the confrontation by
acting as a mediator, which unavoidably will place it on the front stage
of this crisis with all the parties scrutinizing its very step," he
told DW. Andrew
Small, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, pointed out that
China seems unwilling to take any steps beyond expressing the desire for
peace, as it wants to avoid directly interfering with what Russia wants
to do. "I think the sense is still they would give Russia the space to
do what it wants," he said. According to
Small, in cases where China had been willing to take on the role of
mediator, it is often dealing with "little brother" type of countries
like North Korea and Pakistan, where it is able to call the shots and
where it felt comfortable to lean on those countries a little bit.
"China is not comfortable leaning on Russia, and I think they would
question whether it would be successful," he told DW. In recent months, China and Russia have been building closer ties. Following
the in-person meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Chinese President Xi last month, both leaders vowed that the two
countries' friendship had "no limits." Some
analysts point to the Chinese foreign minister's affirmation of the
bilateral ties between China and Russia on Monday and the joint
statement issued last month as signs that Beijing won't be willing to
jeopardize its relationship with Moscow despite the difficult situation
that Russia is facing. "Taking
into account Putin's strong militant will, desperate need to realize
his 'minimum war aims,' and China's dependence on a strategic and
military partnership with him in general, one can seriously doubt that
Beijing is able or willing to play a role of substantial restraint on
Putin," said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at
Renmin University in Beijing. Others think maintaining close ties with Russia can be useful for China in a number of ways. Sari
Arho Havrén, a European-China Policy Fellow at the Berlin-based
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), said that the partnership
can help advance China's geopolitical goals while shaping the global
order. Additionally, the deteriorating economic situation in Russia
could open up potential investment opportunities for Beijing.Close ties between China and Russia