The closure of the vital China-Myanmar trade route,Muse-Lashio-Mandalay since the ‘1027 operation ‘ launched  against theJunta, has led to border trade  between  China and Myanmar grindingto a halt in northern Shan State during the last two weeks "Since October27th, not a single container truck has passed by, and there are no signs ofborder trade at all”, Muse resident told AFP news agency.

Typically, hundreds of trucks, laden with fruits andvegetables, depart from Muse Township for China. On their return journey, theybring back electronics, medicine, and consumer goods from China. However nowthe border trading route is entirely deserted.

Between April and November of this year, border trade withChina reached 5.32 billion USD, with one-third of that sum originating from theMuse and Chinshwehaw border trading posts.

Richard Horsey, a senior advisor at the think-tank -theInternational Crisis Group, asserted that the disruption of the vitalChina-Myanmar trade route is a significant setback for the Military Council.The council heavily relies on China, a neighboring superpower, in the tradesector, especially amid the stringent sanctions imposed by Western countriesfollowing the coup.

Horsey added that a prolonged blockage of border trade couldimpact the Military Council's trade balance, revenue, and foreign currencyincomes.

Analysts estimate that approximately 1 billion USD in tradeincome is derived from gas exports to China. A spokesperson for China's foreignministry stated on Friday that the China-Myanmar natural gas pipeline remainsunaffected by the ongoing fighting.

On October 27th, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprisingthree ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), initiated 'Operation 1027' with asurprise offensive on the Military Council's outposts and bases in northernShan State. The alliance successfully seized control of regional towns,including Chinshwehaw, Hpawnghseng, Kyukoke (Pancsai), Namhkam, Hsenwi(Theinni), with intense clashes continuing in the area.

According to UN agencies, over 50,000 locals have fled theconflict in northern Shan State, seeking refuge from the ongoing clashes.

As a consequence of the China-Myanmar trade routedisruption, prices of goods in the domestic market have surged significantly.Lashio Township, situated approximately 100 miles from Muse, is alsoexperiencing the adverse impacts of the conflict.

“Before the clashes, a bag of rice cost 160000 MMK. Now, ithas risen to 190000 MMK per bag. The longer the fighting goes on, the worse thesituation will be”, a Muse resident, who did not want to be named, toldNarinjara.

At the beginning of this month, Myanmar's central bankinitiated the implementation of inter-bank payment systems in the cross-bordertrade sector, making a desperate effort to enhance trade and investment withChina.

The Military Council grapples with a substantial shortage offoreign currency, stemming from both sanctions and military expenditures. Thereis an urgent requirement for foreign currency to facilitate the country'simports and to obtain weapons for combatting the emerging resistance forcesacross the nation. The China border trade impasse will make things many timesworse with no easy solution in sight.