Junta unlikely to conduct household census in Arakan State

Kyaing Hein Lin, Narinjara News, 4 September 2024

As the military junta prepares for  conducting a population and household census across Myanmar, the political analysts believe that it is unlikely to happen in Arakan State.

The junta, which took power illegally in 2021, announced its plan to hold elections in November 2025 as part of their strategies of political transition.

Despite the ongoing conflict almost across the country, the junta planned to conduct the census from 1 to 15 October  as a preliminary initiative for polls.

U Pe Than, a political analyst, noted that due to the junta's significant territorial losses in Arakan State, it is unlikely that such a census will be conducted in the region.

"Who will conduct the census in Arakan State and which social organization will be involved? Most townships currently lack personnel and those present in their places cannot leave the town. The junta forces and police personnel become unable to provide security to them. So conducting a census enumeration in the Arakan region is impossible," he added.

However, he agreed that the junta-controlled Arakanese townships like Sittwe, Maungdaw, Ann, Kyaukphyu, Gwa, Taungup and Manaung may go for the census.

Moreover, the junta's administration remains effective only in urban areas of these townships. They are struggling in rural regions of Arakan State to make the census possible.

“The census enumeration needs support from various departments. Security becomes the priority. Now the actual population in urban areas is less than what it should have been. It will only create an illusion that the census is being conducted in Arakan State,” asserted U Pe Than.

According to the People's Spring, over  70 of Myanmar's 330 townships have gone to the control of the resistance forces.

Another political analyst, who wanted anonymity, also expressed doubt that the junta would be able to conduct the census in all areas of Myanmar as many towns have lost communication networks due to the ongoing fighting.

"Where will they conduct the census enumeration? The condition for carrying out such an activity is very challenging. Even in Yangon, it's still uncertain whether the census enumeration can be completed," he added.

Junta chief senior general Min Aung Hlaing stated that the national elections will be held only after the countrywide census is completed.

In Myanmar, a nationwide census is usually conducted in a decade. The last census  was conducted from 30 March to 10 April 2014.

Based on data from the 2014 Myanmar population and housing census, the junta’s immigration & population ministry released an estimated population count for Myanmar on 2 October last year.

The report indicated that Myanmar's estimated population is 56.2 million with 3.4 million residing in Arakan State. 

Of those 3.4 million people in Arakan State, 1.6 million are men and 1.8 million are women.

Photograph: A view of the census enumeration process in Arakan State during 2014