Military junta's recent initiative to resolve political problems unlikely to achieve success: Political analysts

Lu Htet Naing, Narinjara News, 28 September 2024

The political analysts believe that the military junta's invitation to ethnic resistance organizations, including the People's Defense Forces (PDF), to address political problems through political means is unlikely to succeed.

On 26 September, the junta announced its invitation to the PDF and ethnic resistance organizations to address political problems considering the country's ongoing losses.

 
In its invitation letter, the junta said, “Considering the losses inflicted on the state by armed conflict and terrorism, we invite ethnic armed organizations, terrorist rebel organizations, and the terrorist PDF to abandon armed attacks and address political issues through diplomatic means, such as party politics or elections. This collaboration with the people is essential for achieving a lasting peace and development."

When Narinjara News asked political analyst U Than Soe Naing about the junta's initiative, he apprehended that such an invitation is unlikely to yield any positive outcome.

“Absolutely not possible! The junta has demanded that the PDFs surrender, establish a political party, and participate in elections, while simultaneously designating the National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG) and the ethnic armed organizations leading the PDFs as terrorist groups. This is a depraved strategy intended to undermine the PDFs from within. However, that plan is unfeasible, as the PDFs are following the leadership of the NUG and ethnic armed organizations, and they are actively engaged in the revolution,” commented U Than Soe Naing.

He further suggested that, due to the military junta's current losses in the battle fields, they are trying to drive a wedge between the NUG, ethnic armed organizations, and the PDFs.

“As the junta's strength weakens, it’s  trying to create divisions within the resistance forces. The junta people aim to drive a wedge between the PDFs and leadership organizations like the NUG and ethnic armed groups. However, there is no way for them to succeed,” he added.

Narinjara News also talked to Arakanese political analyst U Pe Than regarding the junta's invitation. He also echoed that it’s not possible for the PDFs and ethnic armed organizations to surrender and participate in the elections.

“They invite the resistance forces to resolve political problems through political means. This means, the resistance forces must surrender their weapons and participate in the elections, which is absolutely impossible. Currently, the revolutionary forces have  grown stronger every day, while the junta is facing regular losses. Fighting has also occurred across the country. In such an unstable time, it’s impossible to hold elections,” asserted U Pe Than.

U Pe Than also suggested that the junta's current invitation is nothing more than propaganda.

“As the 2008 Constitution remains in place,  the military leadership continues to get undue advantages. Their roadmap, which demands that the resistance forces surrender and participate in the elections, is a sham. If they were genuinely inviting us based on goodwill, they would hold peace talks. Instead, this invitation is a demand to surrender weapons and be involved in their process. The junta is also preparing for a sham election. Therefore, under the current circumstance, the resistance forces will not consider participating in the process at all,” he stated.

The  junta forces are currently experiencing losses in ongoing fighting across the country. 

They have  relinquished control of Northern East Command in Lashio, Shan State, as well as Thandwe and Maung Shwe Lay naval base in Arakan State, to ethnic armed organizations.

The political analysts asserted that the junta's invitation, amid these losses, was not politically sincere and pragmatic.