‘India likely to recognize AA, positioned to continue negotiations’

Lu Htet Naing, Narinjara News, 30 September 2024

Myanmar political analysts suggest that India may recognize the Arakan Army (AA) to protect its interest in Myanmar and the federal government in New Delhi is likely to continue negotiations.

Narinjara News reached out to some political analysts for their insight on New Delhi’s invitation to the armed opposition forces, including the AA, who have been opposing the Myanmar military junta, to participate in talks.

U Than Soe Naing, a Myanmar political analyst, stated, "If India aims to safeguard its interest, we are witnessing a situation where it will likely continue to negotiate and make adjustments with the AA, which now controls much of the Arakan region."

He also noted that New Delhi must inevitably recognize the AA victories.

“The inevitable recognition of the AA victories should be a key consideration. But not only the AA, but other leaders of the Spring Revolution, including the National Unity Government (NUG), were also invited to share their experiences and discuss the federal democracy that the people of Myanmar desire. This can be seen as a significant political advancement. I believe it will lead to a beneficial discussion for our country as well,” he added.

India still supplies weapons to the military junta. Moreover, as a powerful democracy in the Asian region, India remains completely silent on the junta's human rights violations.

During February 1998 New Delhi lured six leaders, including the Arakanese revolutionary general Khaing Yarzar to India and then cold-bloodedly murdered them in their own soil.

The groups invited by India include ethnic armed organizations from the bordering Chin, Arakan, and Kachin States, as well as the NUG, a parallel government of Myanmar.

Narinjara News also spoke with veteran Arakanese politician U Pe Than about the invitation, where he emphasized the importance of New Delhi’s relationship with the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA).

"The relationship with New Delhi is crucial for the ULA/AA, because it is now a revolutionary government, not just an organization. There are many important matters, such as the Kaladan project, that they need to discuss with New Delhi. The ULA/AA's role in the Kaladan project remains significant, and the project cannot succeed without their support. India has also expressed its commitment to make the Kaladan project a success and plans to sell electricity as part of that initiative," he added.

U Pe Than also noted that the ULA/AA is designated as a terrorist organization by the junta, and hence New Delhi’s invitation should be welcomed.

"India has invited four groups, including the NUG and AA, to discuss federalism. This indicates that they recognize the resistance forces as partners. The ULA/AA is even designated as a terrorist organization, yet India extended this invitation. Given the local situation, I believe they want to discuss the type of federal system we aspire to, and explore ways to stabilize the region. We see this as a promising development. Since this is the first time the resistance forces are invited, relations with India are likely to improve further. The junta will not be pleased with this. For the resistance forces, this represents a unique opportunity, and I think New Delhi’s invitation should be welcomed," he added.

The ethnic armed organizations invited by India include the AA, which controls significant areas in Arakan State, as well as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), one of Myanmar's powerful armed groups.

The seminar is scheduled for  November this year in New Delhi, which is sponsored by the Indian government.

Arakanese nationalists caution that the ULA needs to learn from the assassination of past Arakanese revolutionary leaders in its dealings with New Delhi and should continue their relation with India with necessary cautions.