Entire Arakan State may fall during rainy season: Military and political analyst U Pe Than
The entire Arakan State, including Maungdaw town, mayfall into the hands of the Arakha Army (AA) within four to five months duringthe rainy season, predicted Arakan political and military analyst U Pe Thanfollowing the capture of Buthidaung township, considered one of the mostmilitarily fortified Rakhine townships, by the AA fighters.
"On 18 May, the AA announced the capture of allmilitary bases in Buthidaung and complete control over the entire town. AsMaungdaw has fewer military camps compared to Buthidaung, it may fall soon,” headded.
The AA fighters are continuing their offensive onMaungdaw as well as Ann and Thandwe townships.
"I believe military bases in Ann and Thandwe willfall sooner or later, because every time the ULA/AA attack they targetmilitary bases without fail. Currently, Ann town is defended from Taw HeinTaung. If Taw Hein Taung falls, the ULA/AA fighters will enter the areas close to Ann. Gun fighting is also going on in Thandwe. If the AA fighters attack with a large force, the junta soldiers will not be able to faceit," stated U Pe Than.
The Rakhine capital, Sittwe has so far beenspared from attacks. However, the AA has gained control over allsurrounding townships.
"Sittwe will remain as it’s for now. We do notknow when they will attack Sittwe. Being the capital, Sittwe has manybattalions and a civilian population. The AA may think of common people so thatthey don't suffer,” observed the analyst.
The entire country witnesses the defeat of juntaforces in almost every battle. The junta soldiers are facing defeats againstthe AA fighters. On various occasions, they raise white flags and surrender. Bythe rainy season, Arakan State may become free of junta forces. This assessmentis made with a military perspective only, explained U Pe Than.
He also highlighted the exceptional fightingcapabilities of the AA fighters in attacking heavily fortified strategic baseslike the tactical operation command and military operations commandheadquarters.
"Because of their exceptional fighting skills, the junta battalions and camps fell one after another. When fighting thetactical operation command, the AA fighters took a lot of time. Even thetactical operation commands like Paletwa, Kyauktaw and Buthidaung, fell despitetheir strong fortifications. The remaining camps beyond the western command inAnn are not as strong as the tactical operation commands. So, I predict thatthe rest of Rakhine towns will fall soon by the rainy season itself,” concluded U Pe Than.
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