Entire Arakan State may fall during rainy season: Military and political analyst U Pe Than

 Narinjara News, 23 May 2024

The entire Arakan State, including Maungdaw town, may fall into the hands of the Arakha Army (AA) within four to five months during the rainy season, predicted Arakan political and military analyst U Pe Than following the capture of Buthidaung township, considered one of the most militarily fortified Rakhine townships, by the AA fighters.

"On 18 May, the AA announced the capture of all military bases in Buthidaung and complete control over the entire town. As Maungdaw has fewer military camps compared to Buthidaung, it may fall soon,” he added.

The AA fighters are continuing their offensive on Maungdaw as well as Ann and Thandwe townships.

"I believe military bases in Ann and Thandwe will fall sooner or later,  because every time the ULA/AA attack they target military bases without fail. Currently, Ann town is defended from Taw Hein Taung. If Taw Hein Taung falls, the ULA/AA fighters will enter the areas close  to Ann. Gun fighting is also going on in Thandwe. If the AA fighters  attack with a large force, the junta soldiers will not be able to face it," stated U Pe Than.

The Rakhine capital,  Sittwe has so far been spared from attacks. However, the AA  has gained control over all surrounding townships.

"Sittwe will remain as it’s for now. We do not know when they will attack Sittwe. Being the capital, Sittwe has many battalions and a civilian population. The AA may think of common people so that they don't suffer,” observed the analyst.

The entire country witnesses  the defeat of junta forces in almost every battle. The junta soldiers are facing defeats against the AA fighters. On various occasions, they raise white flags and surrender. By the rainy season, Arakan State may become free of junta forces. This assessment is made with a military perspective only, explained U Pe Than.

He also highlighted the exceptional fighting capabilities of the AA fighters in attacking heavily fortified strategic bases like the tactical operation command and military operations command headquarters.

"Because of their exceptional fighting skills,  the junta battalions and camps fell one after another. When fighting the tactical operation command, the AA fighters took a lot of time. Even the tactical operation commands like Paletwa, Kyauktaw and Buthidaung, fell despite their strong fortifications. The remaining camps beyond the western command in Ann are not as strong as the tactical operation commands. So, I predict that the rest of Rakhine towns will fall soon by the rainy season itself,” concluded  U Pe Than.